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Could be either one and a third possibility of course is the battery itself has went bad already.
I agree with BW. Your best bet is to get a Volt-Ohm meter on it first to make sure it acts like it is at least trying to charge while running. Should see a little higher voltage while engine running compared to when the engine is not running.
One quick test you could make would be to disconnect the positive battery terminal after you shut it off, measure it's voltage, then see how much the battery voltage drops with nothing connected to it over time. If it goes below 12.2-12.4 Volts (roughly just for reference) by the next time you need the tractor in a week or two you likely just got a dud battery.
